What is likely to happen if Iran withdraw from World Cup due to conflict with USA?

As announced by US President Trump, strikes were launched as the beginning of attempts to “destroy their [Iran’s] missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.”

Iran is reported to have responded to the surprise action by launching strikes of their own on locations in Israel, as well as US bases in multiple other locations within the Gulf.

Considering the heightened extent of tensions, reaching their worst in months, it is fair to consider a scenario in which Iran could withdraw from the World Cup, where some 73 of the 104 matches take place in the USA.

As it stands, all of Iran’s group stage matches, against Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand, will take place on US soil.

While nothing has yet emerged from either side, over Iran either pulling out, or being banned from travelling to their games, it is well worth looking into what the result of that eventuality would be.

According to FIFA’s rules, quoted here by SportBible, should a team withdraw from the World Cup at such a late stage, then they would be replaced with “a nominated alternate, often the direct runner-up from the relevant qualifying playoff or highest-ranked non-qualified team from that confederation”.

“If replacement is impractical (timing, visas, travel), award the group slot to a replacement team but keep schedule; or in exceptional cases adjust group arrangements.”

Following this suggestion, it is most likely that the UAE would replace Iran at the World Cup this summer.

UAE actually finished with a worse record than Iraq in Asian qualifying, but Iraq are already set to take part in a continental play-off against either Bolivia or Suriname later in the spring.

Another option could be for Iraq to be handed Iran’s place at the tournament, and for UAE to then compete in the play-off.

This would have to be decided by FIFA in the event of a change.