Latest poll predicts outcome of Gorton and Denton by-election

The poll released by Opinium has given insight into what the result of the by-election, set to be held on Thursday 26 February, may have in store.

The by-election has been one of the most talked about in recent times due to the potential implications of the vote.

The vote was triggered after Labour MP Andrew Gwynne stepped down at the end of January, citing “significant ill health” and that he had been advised by his GP that it wasn’t safe for him to return to work as an MP.

At the time, this opened the door for Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham to finally return to the House of Commons as an MP and potentially mount a Labour leadership challenge.

This has led to Angeliki Stogia standing as the Labour candidate.

The by-election is important because it concerns three of the most-talked about parties in the country, the incumbent Labour, the pretenders Reform and the upstart Greens.

A win for Labour would be more of a vote of non-confidence in the other parties rather than confidence in Labour who are struggling in the popularity rankings, however, would suggest that not all is lost at sea.

Meanwhile, a win for Reform, with candidate Matt Goodwin, would suggest the long-anticipated shift to growing far-right ideologies in the country.

And finally, a win for the Greens, with candidate Hannah Spencer, would suggest a wind of change towards a newer and lesser-tried political stance, and would set in concrete the party as a veritable challenger after their meteoric growth in recent months.

So, with all this in mind, what do the polls say?

As per Opinium, the vote is set to come down to the tightest of margins, with both the Greens and Labour polling at 28% of the vote, while Reform sit just behind on 27%.

Far from their usual fertile voting grounds, the Conservatives make up 6% and the Lib Dems 4%.

The rest is attributed to others.

The by-election takes place on Thursday 26 February with results expected on Friday morning and a potentially longer than usual wait if the vote ends up being as close as the polls suggest.