Airbnb warns of ‘tough’ months ahead even as it beats estimates

Revenue rose 13 per cent to $3.1bn in the three months to the end of June, beating the average analyst estimate for $3bn, according to a filing on Wednesday. Net income increased 16 per cent to $642mn, exceeding expectations for $603mn.

Airbnb’s revenue for the current period — which includes the peak summer season — is expected to be between $4.02bn and $4.1bn, at the higher end of analyst expectations for $4.05bn. 

However, executives warned that earning margins would compress in the third quarter as president Trump’s new tariffs go into effect on countries such as Switzerland and India and as it invests $200mn in new services and experiences. 

Chief financial officer Ellie Mertz said that “despite global economic uncertainty early in the quarter, travel demand picked up, and nights booked on Airbnb accelerated from April to July”.

Yet she warned that nightly booking growth rates for the rest of the year would fail to match the 8 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, which rose to 12 per cent in the fourth.

Chief executive Brian Chesky launched new product lines in May, aiming to galvanise earnings by offering travellers and locals the ability to book cleaners, hairdressers or take cooking lessons with celebrity chefs as part of a splashy revamp of its app by ex-Apple design chief Jony Ive.

Mertz said that the company does not expect “meaningful revenue from our new businesses in the near term”, but that they will eventually be “key drivers of sustainable long-term growth”.

Airbnb shares had previously fallen 20 per cent since February 14, reflecting negative economic sentiment.

After Trump’s announced his so-called liberation day tariffs in April, Airbnb bookings — particularly those planned months in advance — fell sharply as consumers around the world worried about the economic impact. That malaise had abated by May, but the current recovery still trails the pace of growth in the third quarter of 2024.

It also flagged that “travel from Canada to the US remained soft”. The company added that Canadians were still booking at the same frequency, but preferred locales such as Mexico and Europe. However, the vast majority of Airbnb bookings in the US are domestic, with inbound travel to the country accounting for less than a tenth of the total.

Higher sales came as holidaymakers booked more overnight stays, with nights and seats booked rising 7 per cent to 134.4mn in the second quarter, matching the growth rate of the prior three months, and equating to $23.5bn in value.

The San Francisco-based company also announced a new $6bn share buyback programme, building on the earlier $6bn it said it would repurchase in February 2024, of which $1.5bn has not yet been bought back.