A pivotal day for the PM
Will Keir Starmer resign today? – That is the question on many people’s minds this morning.
In the last 24 hours the prime minister has come under immense pressure from within his own party to resign or set out a timetable for departure.
As per reports, around 80 Labour MPs are now calling on Starmer to vacate his role, almost a quarter of the number of incumbent MPs the party have in the House of Commons.
Meanwhile, it has been reported that a number of senior cabinet ministers are advising the prime minister to step down.
These include Shabana Mahmood and three others who have not been specified, as per The Times, but The Guardian believe Yvette Cooper is another.
What will Starmer do now?
As per reports, the prime minister already has his day planned out, with a crunch cabinet meeting slated for this morning.
These meetings are weekly, but it is certain that the topic of Starmer’s potential departure will be on the cards as Labour look to save their favourability in the polls after a catastrophic round of local elections.
The prime minister has reiterated on multiple occasions in the last week that he would “not walk away” or give up on his role.
For the time being, there is no indication that he will be resigning today.
However, this could all change depending on how this morning’s cabinet meeting goes.
Could he be forced out?
Theoritically yes, in a sense that is what is already happening.
A party leader can be removed in two ways; the forceful way, or the coercive way.
Backbencher MP Catherine West had attempted the former just on Friday, saying she would challenge Starmer by this Monday if he did not set out a timetable for departure.
She started collecting signatures and would have needed 20% of Labour MPs (81) to trigger a leadership contest.
While West suspended her leadership challenger before her Monday ultimatum, the number of Labour MPs calling on Starmer’s departure is now in that ballpark requirement.
The other way Starmer could be made to quit is the way we are currently seeing, coersion and pressure from within.
People quitting and others calling for his resignation.
While Starmer still has some allies, the writing looks likes it’s on the wall.
Who could replace Starmer?
Wes Streeting
Wes Streeting. Credit: Getty.
A frontrunner purely because his name has been mentioned the most, the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care has a solid foundation to challenge from.
While Streeting has already denied a plan to challenge Starmer last year, he does seem to hold just enough approval to mount a challenge.
While not the favourite of the Labour Party, Streeting has a strong media presence, despite being the 20th most popular current Labour MP (down from 6th last year), as per YouGov data, although he lags behind fellow cabinet ministers Ed Miliband, David Lammy as well as former minister Angela Rayner.
If indeed Streeting does manage to mount a challenge, we could see Downing Street become Downing Streeting.
However, it is worth noting that, like many of Starmer’s cabinet, he has ties with the sacked Peter Mandelson, potentially jeopardising a challenge.
Andy Burnham
Known as the ‘King of the North’ the current mayor of Greater Manchester is by far the most popular Labour politician currently.
However, an attempt to make his way into parliament was recently foiled by his own party, being blocked from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Although unlikely, if Starmer does fall, there could be a scenario where a Burnham ally steps down from their seat to force a by-election and allow Burnham into parliament.
This, however, would be long and tedious.
This said, many would struggle to disagree that Burnham has done a solid job in Manchester, helping it become the fastest-growing city in the UK outside of London, although this was also helped by those before him.
However, there remains one key issue with Burnham, he’s not an MP, and, while it’s not a legal requirement, it is generally accepted that a PM must also be an MP for obvious reasons such as partaking in PMQs.
In order for this to happen, Burnham would need to win a by-election which is possible, but would either require convenient timing, or a current MP to step down.
Burnham is known to have previously clashed with Starmer while his past comments have left the door firmly ajar.
Asked by the BBC in September about whether or not he would challenge for Labour Party leadership, Burnham said that it was “up to the party” to decide while adding “we need to get people back behind the Labour government”.
Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper or Shabana Mahmood
All three have either served in this government’s cabinet or currently are, and are close allies of Starmer.
In the scenario Starmer steps down, he may support one of his closer colleagues in running for the PM role.
Angela Rayner, while having to step down from her role as deputy PM over underpaying stamp duty, she remains the second most popular Labour politician as per YouGov.
Meanwhile Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood might be a feasible alternative purely because of less media attention than others.
At the same time, Home Secretary Mahmood has presented a harder line on immigration in recent months, potentially appealing to a different section of society and showing characteristics of a strong leader.
Lucy Powell
Despite her election to Deputy Leader of the Labour Party last year and speaking out against plans from the chancellor to raise income tax before the Autumn Budget, Powell remains a slight outsider.
While she is a popular figure, Powell is yet to reach the prominence of the main frontbenchers.
However, her defiant comments in response to Rachel Reeves’ reported plan to increase income tax last year suggested Powell could be one to take on the status quo, a key quality in anyone who wants to seize power from within.
Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live, she spoke about the party sticking to its guns on the manifesto pledges it ran on before the general election last year.
She said: “If we’re to take the country with us then they’ve got to trust us.
“We want to make sure that ordinary working people are better off as a result of this Labour government and we’re putting more money back into the pockets of ordinary working people,” she said.
“That’s what that manifesto commitment is all about. And that’s what this Budget will be about I’m sure.”
She added: “It’s really important we stand by the promises that we were elected on and that we do what we said we would do.”
#Keir #Starmer #resign #today #cabinet #ministers #quit
