The Citizens reached 1st place for the first time since August on Wednesday
Despite there being just five matchweeks left in the 2025/26 season, league leaders Manchester City could still see their title hopes derailed by the impending verdict in the “115 financial charges” case, according to one of the most knowledgeable figures in football finance.
More than two years have passed since the club managed by Pep Guardiola were initially charged by the Premier League, over an alleged historic number of breaches of financial regulations.
Around 15 months ago, a 12-week hearing took place involving City representatives, Premier League officials, and adjudicators, who examined the evidence in the case.
Since proceedings concluded in December 2024, there have been no formal updates.
This vacuum in communication from the Premier League has meant that most of the discussion surrounding the case has come from finance specialists who, while experts in their field, do not have direct insight into the specific inner workings of the case.
The most high-profile of these is Kieran Maguire, who made national headlines following comments he made during an appearance on The Overlap in February this year.
The writer, best known for The Price of Football, made clear that those involved in deciding Man City’s case are not “football people” meaning their timeline for a verdict will not consider dates like the end of the current season, and it could even be revealed on the “day of the World Cup final.”
This means that it is still more than possible for a verdict to be delivered between now and the end of the current Premier League campaign.
A points deduction remains a real possibility, and even a modest penalty imposed between now and the final gameweek could be enough to hand the title to Arsenal.
It must be noted that Maguire’s comments are an estimation on evidence from past cases.
Any final decision will only be decided by the independent regulators investigating the case, which will be announced by the Premier League in due course.
What is the case all about?
In February 2023, the Premier League made a groundbreaking statement public statement in which they announced City would be investigated to a series of alleged rule breaches over a nine-year period, from 2009 to 2018.
Broken down, the charges relate to:
The case, dubbed the “Trial of the Century” finally began the following Autumn, beginning on 16th September 2024 and running until that December.
Since then there’s been nothing at all, as the panel assessing the charges have taken all of 15 months, and counting, to reach a final conclusion.
In the months since City were first charged, another Premier League side have already been handed a punishment for a similar albeit smaller offence.
In November 2023 Everton were handed down a 10-point deduction, which was then reduced to six on appeal, for a £19.5m overspend of Premier League PSR rules.
The reason as to why City’s case has taken so much longer is, at least on the surface, relatively simple: it’s much more complicated than the Everton case.
Everton were charged just the once by the Premier League, while City face 115 charges.
Everton may have disputed some of the Premier League’s claims about their accounts, but there is no suggestion whatsoever that they were deliberately dishonest.
In comparison, Man City have been explicitly charged by the Premier League with failing to provide “a true and fair view of the club’s financial position,” and of failing to “include full details” of player and manager remuneration.
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Man City could face a “40-60 points deduction”
As part of his Overlap appearance, Keiran Maguire gave a prediction on what a potential punishment could look like.
He said: “The Premier League cannot relegate Man City to League 1 or League 2 because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL; therefore it has to be a points deduction.
“If we look at the precedence, we’ve had four and six point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Man City cover a nine year period.
“I think you have to add another zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton.
Beyond the sporting sanctions, the Premier League are also likely to institute broader punishments at a club level, if all 115 charges are proven, according to Maguire.
“Corporate fraud is a very serious charge. The board of directors will have to resign. If Manchester City are found guilty (although both the club and the Premier League are confident they are in the right), the management must go, and this could lead to a complete restructuring of the club.”
What has caused such a delay?
Put simply, the Man City case is unprecedented in the history of English football.
The BBC also spoke with legal expert Simon Leaf, who is the head of sport at the law firm Mishcon de Reya.
He said: “We have never seen anything like this type of case in the history of English football and arguably in world football.
“Given the scale of the allegations, the nature of the charges and the approach to handling the matter that each side has taken, most experts are not surprised that we are still waiting for a decision.”
The extent of the effort put in by Man City to defend themselves, and their denial of all charges, has also played a role in delaying the case.
This is best explained by Yasin Patel who is a barrister at Church Court Chambers.
Also speaking to BBC Sport, she said: “The team of lawyers Manchester City have assembled… call it a super team if you want.
“There’s a lot riding on it for the Premier League as well as Manchester City.”
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has added that the sheer volume of the case material being dealt with is higher than anything the league has ever seen before.
Maguire said: “We could be looking at half a million pieces of evidence, which have to be reflected upon by the three people in the commission.”
Maguire has suggested that the earliest date a verdict could be available is this October, but even that could be optimistic.
In the meantime it’s still business as usual for Man City.
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