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After months of speculation about Andy Burnham\u2019s leadership potential, and how he\u2019d secure a route back to parliament, it looks like his chance his finally here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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On Thursday, Labour MP Josh Simons\u2019s announced he will step down from his seat in Makerfield, with the deliberate intention of allowing Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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On his return to parliament after more than nine years as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham would then be able to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
<\/p>\n But before we get that far, the former Leigh MP has to first win the Makerfield by-election \u2013 and that isn\u2019t as much as a dead cert as it might previously have been\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Since its creation in 1983, the Greater Manchester constituency of Makerfield has been held by Labour. 11 general elections, 11 Labour wins.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n The closest any other party has come to winning the seat was in 2019, when the Tories won 34.3% of the vote to Labour\u2019s 45.1%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n Then, in 2024, Josh Simons held the seat for Labour. But it wasn\u2019t the Tories who finished second this time \u2013 it was Reform. Their candidate won 31.8% of the vote, around 5,400 votes fewer than Simons.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n Of course, public opinion has shifted dramatically since then.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n The most concerning thing for Burnham will be the local election results in the area earlier this month. Reform won over half (50.4%) of the vote in the area\u2019s eight wards, demolishing Labour (22.7%).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n On current polling, Makerfield would likely be won by Reform in a by-election, and Farage has vowed to \u201cthrow absolutely everything\u201d at the contest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n This was highlighted by More In Common\u2019s Luke Tryl.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n If anyone can hold off Reform\u2019s rise, it would be him.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Along with polling, the bookmakers usually give us a pretty good idea about politics. You only have to cast your mind back to February in the Gorton and Denton by-election to see how useful a glance at the odds can be.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n And there\u2019s good news here for Burnham.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n At the time of writing, Labour are odds-on to win the Makerfield by-election, with William Hill having the party at 4\/6 to hold on to the seat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n It\u2019s a close run thing at the moment though, with Reform second favourites on 6\/5.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n Meanwhile, Ladbrokes have even shorter odds on a Labour win, giving 4\/7.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n All of this is on the assumption Burnham will be the Labour candidate. Considering that he has said he wants to stand and Number 10\u00a0seem happy to let him\u00a0on this occasion, there\u2019s no reason to think Burnham wouldn\u2019t be the Labour candidate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n So, Labour and Burnham are very much the favourites with the bookies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n If Labour\u2019s Chief Whip starts the election process in the coming days, the Makerfield by-election could take place as early as June 18 or June 25.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n Should Burnham win the seat, he\u2019d then be set up for a tilt at the Labour leadership later in the year. He would then need the nomination of 81 Labour MPs to be formally enter a contest. Keir Starmer would automatically be on the ballot as sitting leader if he wishes to contest the challenge, as would any other candidates who can secure 81 Labour MP nominations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n It will then be up to a ballot of Labour members to decide who becomes \u2013 or stays on \u2013 as leader.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n The Labour leadership chaos looks like it could rumble on for a few months yet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n In the age of stats geeks, AI-generated Fantasy teams and nth-degree analysis, we’ve stripped football knowledge down to its most instinctual form: Win, Lose or Draw.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n In JOE’s new Premier League Win-Lose-Draw Predictor, you can prove your footballing nous up against your mates, while also being in with a chance of winning \u20ac1,000\/\u00a31,000 each week.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n And if no users predict all results correctly, EVERY player who submitted an entry will be placed into a random prize draw for the \u20ac1,000\/\u00a31,000.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n Two players came within an inch of winning the jackpot last week with 9\/10 right – play below for this weekend’s fixtures! It takes just a few minutes to enter\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\nPrevious Makerfield election results<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
What odds do the bookies give him?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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